Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 2020 | 1171 | 19766 | 42 | 6 | 333 | 381 |
| September 13 2020 | 1232 | 20082 | 43 | 6 | 372 | 431 |
| September 14 2020 | 1259 | 20176 | 43 | 6 | 377 | 458 |
| September 15 2020 | 1286 | 20231 | 43 | 6 | 381 | 461 |
| September 16 2020 | 1336 | 20533 | 45 | 6 | 395 | 498 |
| September 17 2020 | 1398 | 20641 | 45 | 6 | 421 | 538 |
| September 18 2020 | 1476 | 20972 | 45 | 6 | 476 | 594 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.3 | 2.1% | 10 | 0.09% | 12 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 22 | 12.1 | 21.4% | 102 | 0.75% | 140 | 1.03% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 30.9 | 59.9% | 285 | 1.36% | 349 | 1.67% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.0 | 4.8% | 23 | 0.17% | 28 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 2.4 | 4.2% | 20 | 0.19% | 24 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.9% | 14 | 0.11% | 16 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.1 | 3.6% | 17 | 0.15% | 19 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 1.1% | 5 | 0.05% | 6 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 78 | 54.0 | 100% | 476 | 0.45% | 594 | 0.57% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 2020 | 409 | 12908 | 17 | 0 | 55 | 67 |
| September 13 2020 | 418 | 12993 | 17 | 0 | 54 | 73 |
| September 14 2020 | 420 | 13036 | 17 | 0 | 49 | 73 |
| September 15 2020 | 423 | 13084 | 17 | 0 | 47 | 73 |
| September 16 2020 | 434 | 13161 | 17 | 0 | 56 | 80 |
| September 17 2020 | 447 | 13295 | 18 | 0 | 65 | 83 |
| September 18 2020 | 456 | 13383 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 85 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 2020 | 395 | 7929 | 18 | 4 | 20 | 25 |
| September 13 2020 | 396 | 7931 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 26 |
| September 14 2020 | 398 | 8017 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| September 15 2020 | 401 | 8142 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 29 |
| September 16 2020 | 403 | 8206 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| September 17 2020 | 405 | 8249 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 24 |
| September 18 2020 | 407 | 8297 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 2020 | 1625 | 22558 | 39 | 2 | 417 | 469 |
| September 13 2020 | 1754 | 22560 | 39 | 2 | 515 | 577 |
| September 14 2020 | 1799 | 22561 | 40 | 2 | 513 | 617 |
| September 15 2020 | 1889 | 22605 | 41 | 2 | 577 | 687 |
| September 16 2020 | 2011 | 23463 | 41 | 2 | 685 | 803 |
| September 17 2020 | 2121 | 23609 | 41 | 2 | 784 | 882 |
| September 18 2020 | 2375 | 23620 | 41 | 2 | 1024 | 1089 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.4% | 4 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 102 | 47.4 | 38.2% | 391 | 2.36% | 408 | 2.46% |
| 20-29 | 118 | 59.0 | 48.2% | 494 | 2.32% | 525 | 2.47% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 3.6 | 2.6% | 27 | 0.2% | 32 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 4.0 | 3.8% | 39 | 0.29% | 45 | 0.33% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 2.3 | 2.4% | 25 | 0.18% | 27 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.3 | 2.1% | 21 | 0.15% | 23 | 0.16% |
| 70+ | 7 | 3.1 | 2.2% | 23 | 0.18% | 25 | 0.19% |
| All ages | 254 | 121.7 | 100% | 1024 | 0.87% | 1089 | 0.92% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 2020 | 7389 | 173348 | 343 | 41 | 1825 | 2002 |
| September 13 2020 | 7622 | 174239 | 344 | 41 | 1983 | 2196 |
| September 14 2020 | 7846 | 174544 | 345 | 41 | 2047 | 2417 |
| September 15 2020 | 7896 | 175620 | 346 | 41 | 1935 | 2376 |
| September 16 2020 | 7984 | 176565 | 347 | 41 | 1866 | 2420 |
| September 17 2020 | 8242 | 179874 | 349 | 41 | 2034 | 2603 |
| September 18 2020 | 8455 | 182213 | 350 | 41 | 2028 | 2656 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 3.0 | 1.3% | 26 | 0.04% | 32 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 62 | 80.0 | 52.4% | 1063 | 1.5% | 1447 | 2.04% |
| 20-29 | 89 | 57.1 | 32.3% | 656 | 0.63% | 830 | 0.8% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 9.9 | 4.7% | 96 | 0.13% | 122 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 16 | 9.4 | 3.9% | 79 | 0.12% | 87 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 7.3 | 2.9% | 59 | 0.09% | 73 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 2.4 | 1.3% | 26 | 0.05% | 39 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.4 | 1.1% | 23 | 0.05% | 26 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 213 | 171.6 | 100% | 2028 | 0.37% | 2656 | 0.49% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 12 2020 | 87603 | 1264305 | 6309 | 1209 | 10474 | 12803 |
| September 13 2020 | 89185 | 1270458 | 6332 | 1210 | 11329 | 13848 |
| September 14 2020 | 89956 | 1273607 | 6350 | 1210 | 10602 | 14353 |
| September 15 2020 | 91304 | 1284525 | 6406 | 1220 | 11004 | 14720 |
| September 16 2020 | 92712 | 1295313 | 6454 | 1228 | 11519 | 15583 |
| September 17 2020 | 94746 | 1304724 | 6522 | 1231 | 12986 | 16890 |
| September 18 2020 | 97279 | 1315258 | 6569 | 1238 | 14802 | 17925 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 77 | 36.4 | 2.4% | 356 | 0.06% | 425 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 519 | 336.0 | 22.6% | 3339 | 0.44% | 4063 | 0.54% |
| 20-29 | 734 | 468.3 | 29.7% | 4391 | 0.58% | 5255 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 310 | 176.1 | 10.9% | 1619 | 0.21% | 1940 | 0.26% |
| 40-49 | 273 | 161.9 | 9.8% | 1448 | 0.21% | 1752 | 0.25% |
| 50-59 | 277 | 181.3 | 11.4% | 1688 | 0.21% | 2086 | 0.26% |
| 60-69 | 203 | 117.6 | 7.2% | 1065 | 0.14% | 1314 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 140 | 98.0 | 6.1% | 896 | 0.14% | 1090 | 0.17% |
| All ages | 2533 | 1575.6 | 100% | 14802 | 0.25% | 17925 | 0.31% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.8 | 102.9 | 166.8 | 54 | 25.1 | 20.1% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | 7.6 | 5 | 9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.4% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.1 | 246.5 | 246.7 | 121.7 | 22.1 | 41.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.6 | 203.6 | 79.9 | 171.6 | 111.3 | 11.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30.8 | 53.7 | 69.4 | 1575.6 | 879.6 | 15.3% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.35 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-09 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1338"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges